AdSense Earnings Estimation Calculator

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Calculate how much you can potentially make with Google Adsense. Use the calculator below.

 

Why estimate Adsense Earnings?

You might want to estimate your Adsense earnings as an indication on whether it’s worth building an Adsense site or page for a specific keyword or set of keywords, and which ones are better to go for.

Another reason to project your Adsense earnings, is to see if it might be worth switching over from an affiliate program you’re currently using to Adsense. You’ll already know how much this earns you, as well as the amount of pageviews you’re receiving.

Estimating the numbers to use in the calculator

If you have data from websites or pages you’re already running Adsense on, go by that data, especially if the niche is related. If you have nothing to go by, there are methods of estimating the data we need to perform our calculation.

Estimating pageviews

First, go to the Google Adwords keyword planner, and type in your keyword. This will get you the Average monthly searches and the Suggested bid.

Adwords-results-suggested-bid

Now you know how often your keyword is searched (9,900 times a month), and how much Google suggests advertisers pay for ads that will be shown on pages that target this keyword (which could be your website!).

You’ll now have to estimate, based on the competition, where you’ll be able to rank. Let’s assume you know you’ll eventually be able to rank #1 for this keyword. Research gives us a pretty good idea on how many people will click on your website, based on your rank in Google. For instance, check out the data at this page by Moz.com. For a #1 spot in Google for this keyword, this could be roughly between 30 and 45% of the search volume. From my experience this is true; my largest website, which ranks #1 for the main keyword, has a 35% clickthrough rate from the search results on Google.

People Googling the exact keyword we’re researching, won’t make up all the traffic that lands on your page. You’ll also be able to get traffic from people Googling other keywords that your page will rank for (long-tail keywords), as well as social traffic, referral traffic from other websites or from other pages on your own website. Or from other search engines. For my example site, this makes up for about 50% extra traffic to a page. This can vary a lot, depending on your traffic strategies.

Estimating your Earnings Per Click (EPC)

You won’t receive the total amount that is shown as the suggested bid. First of, advertisers usually advertise for (way) less than the suggested bid, especially if your website is newer or low quality. Second, Google takes a 32% share for each click (source). From my own data, I’m earning about 25% of the suggested bid for my keywords.

Estimating the CTR

Researching this topic, you’ll find that these numbers will vary wildly. A lot of sources state 2%, and I’ve also read marketers that say they get at least 10% if they have everything properly optimized. I only have one website with Adsense ads, which has a CTR of about 5%. If you have any data yourself, preferably in a related niche, go by that data.

Example calculation

In this example, we’ll go by the keyword in the screenshot; ‘Easy guitar chords’.

  • Pageviews: The page gets 9900 monthly searches. If we rank #1 for that keyword, we’ll get 35% of that as organic traffic to our site as organic traffic (based on my other website). The page will get  9900*0.35 = 3465 pageviews from that keyword from Google. We estimate that the page will get another 50% from other sources, so we can expect 3465*150% = 5198 (rounded up) pageviews.
  • Earnings per click: The suggested bid for this keyword is €0.73. We assume we’re going to earn 25% of that number: €0.73*25% = €0.1825 per click.
  • CTR: We’ll go with the 2% that seems to be average.

Plugging these numbers into the calculator results in €18.97 earned from Adsense ads on this page in a month. On average, 1000 views to this page earn €3.65 (RPM).